I didn't see a thread for this, so I thought I'd go ahead and start a thread discussing who the likely winner will be.
Here's my analysis of the knockout round matches and who I think will win the Champions League. It's long but pretty thorough.
FC Porto (POR) v Chelsea FC (ENG)
This match is a soap opera lover's wet dream. But while Porto has been playing good football, I expect The Special One to come through. Porto is obviously the underdog, and while they do have a chance (however remote), the match is like a Scottish terrier facing off with a doberman. Chelsea has greater squad depth and experienced players. Porto is only a shade of its former self. But anything can happen.
I predict: Chelsea
Celtic FC (SCO) v AC Milan (ITA)
Celtic's was a fairytale story so far in the group stages, but AC Milan is always tough. While I think that AC Milan was probably the best match up Celtic could have hoped for, they also have serious confidence issues. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy with Celtic. They believe that they have a bad away form, so of course they're going to lose away from home. And while they have great home form, all Milan would have to do is knock in one goal at Glasgow, even if they lose.
Milan's run in their domestic league has been awful, but they're getting their act together in the Champions League. Milan realizes that they not only have no hope of winning Serie A, but they might not even finish in the top three - which means no Champions League for spots. So the only way they can compete in Europe next year is to win this year (winners are automatically given a berth in the group stages despite their domestic rankings). So if all their players are fit, and their coach is either replaced or remembers how to coach again, I think Milan will come out on top. They are far more desperate for the win than Celtic is.
I predict: Milan
PSV Eindhoven (NED) v Arsenal FC (ENG)
I think this match is tougher than it appears on paper. PSV Eindhoven can be brilliant - or crappy. They have a lot of experience, though I will also say that their team has declined in the past few years. As for Arsenal, I honestly think they reached last year's Champions League final prematurely. I'm not saying that they didn't deserve it, but I think it was more of a one-hit wonder thing. Every week in the press, Arsene Wenger complains about how hard it is for his "young" side who aren't used to harsher play (aka Bolton). Which is strange, I think, given that they play in the Premiership.
Arsenal plays nice football, but if they cop out at the first sign of tough tackling (which the PSV is quite capable of), then they'll be in trouble. So if Arsenal wants to win, they're going to have to beef up their players.
I predict: Arsenal
LOSC Lille Métropole (FRA) v Manchester United FC (ENG)
Manchester United is the obvious favorite, but Lille is a good side. They are tough and tenacious, and last year, they drew with MU at Old Trafford and then won at home, so I wouldn't write Lille off. Unfortunately, MU always manages to mess up in Europe. It's become a bad habit. Also, MU has a paper thin squad. While their starting XI is talented, their substitutes are mediocre and wouldn't win against West Ham. So if MU is hit with an injury crisis or suspensions (and they always are), they'll be in trouble.
I predict: Lille - unless SAF gets in some reinforcements.
AS Roma (ITA) v Olympique Lyonnais (FRA)
Both teams play really great football. I love that both Roma and Lyon are attack-minded, that is, they don't score a goal and then sit back to defend (a la Bayern). But while Roma oozes talent, they lack consistancy. Sometimes they play well, sometimes they don't. They have Totti, De Rossi, Mancini, Mexes, though their primary playmaker is Totti. If Totti isn't around, Roma has no one to channel its attacks through.
Lyon, on the other hand, boasts quite possibly the best squad in terms of depth and consistancy. Though it goes without saying that the French Ligue is weaker than its counterparts in Spain, Italy, and England, Lyon is still competitive on the European level, has won the last 25 of 27 CL matches, has only lost one match in all 26 competitions this entire season, and is already 17 points clear of its next domestic rival. And worse, their away form is just as good as their home form. So by the time the knockout rounds come around, Lyon won't be worried about the French Championnat - they can rest players and focus on the CL, which Roma can't afford to do. Lyon also shares its goal scoring burden, with eleven different players scoring consistantly. Lyon has more than one way to hurt Roma.
That being said, I predict that this game will be the most entertaining of all the match ups. No 0-0 scorelines here!
I predict: Lyon
FC Barcelona (ESP) v Liverpool FC (ENG)
While an in-form Barca can beat Liverpool, the second leg will be at Anfield. However, Liverpool needs to be wary because Barca loves scoring goals (almost as much as Lyon), and they'll score both at Camp Nou and Anfield. So Liverpool is going to have to score at Camp Nou as well. I think this match will be decided up away goals.
And this year hasn't been the best for Barcelona. They just aren't as unstoppable as they were last year, a number of their players haven't been performing well, and we've seen how dependent the team is on Ronaldinho. If he's having an off day on the day of the matches, then it's bye-bye for Barca. Liverpool also has the added advantage of having a coach who knows Barca's game.
I predict: Liverpool
Real Madrid CF (ESP) v FC Bayern München (GER)
This match is the toughest to predict, in my opinion. Real Madrid finally seems to be gettings thing right under Capello, the squad boasts as much talent as Chelsea, and I think they're really tired of being second to Barcelona all the time. But Bayern is solid defensively, and Madrid is going to have a hard time getting past their defenses. Bayern will probably lose at the Bernabeu, and Madrid might lose at Allianz. This might be another match decided by away goals.
I predict: Bayern
FC Internazionale Milano (ITA) v Valencia CF (ESP)
These are two dynamic sides, both suffering under the shadows of their more illustrious domestic rivals. Valencia has been doing really great so far, but they're running on adrenaline, and it already seems like they're loosing steam, though it's not even Christmas yet. David Villa and Fernando Morientes have been great, but their perfomances alone won't win them the CL. By the time February comes around, they might be exhausted and have a hard time keeping up both in La Liga and in Europe.
Inter, on the other hand, seem to be gaining momentum. They are already seven points clear of their nearest rival, Roma, and the gap will probably widen. They have a star studded team, all experienced, with several former CL and World Cup winners. Their bench is good enough to cope with injuries.
I predict: Inter
Who I think will win the Champions League: LYON
To my mind, the top three teams are Barcelona, Chelsea, and Lyon. Barcelona and Chelsea look better on paper, but Barca is going to have a tough time dealing with both their domestic league and the CL. This year, La Liga is way more competitive, and Barca can't afford to take an eye off domestic perfomances to prepare for European matches. What's more, we've seen that Barcelona really depends on Eto'o and Ronaldinho. When one of them isn't there or isn't playing well, they barely manage to scrape by.
Of course, Eto'o will be back by spring, but he's been sidelined for a long time, and it can take a while before a player returns to match fitness. As for Ronaldinho - he's brilliant and can win matches on his own, but this year we've seen him fluctuate. Additionally, I don't think their squad depth is as great as Lyon and Chelsea's. In the event of injuries, I don't see Barca's B-team doing too well.
Chelsea has the best individual talent, hands down. They are tenacious and don't mind sacrificing attractive play for effective play. They will keeping fighting until the very last second of stoppage time. Drogba has been unstoppable both domestically and in Europe, and Mourinho is probably the best coach on the planet, as pained as I am to admit it. And even more, their bench strength is formidable. Mourinho's reasoning for his many expensive purchases is quite obvious - he wants to be able to win both domestic and European titles. However, what goes against Chelsea is ironically their best asset - too many stars. In many games, we see Chelsea grind out wins and draws, partially because their players don't have good chemistry. Money can buy you talent but not necessarily the means to use it, and it takes more than a year for a squad to work really well together.
While perfect squad chemistry isn't a big deal when you play teams like Charlton, it makes a huge difference when you play top European teams. Should Chelsea come up against a fully fit Milan, for example, I think Milan's slicker style would see them through, purely on overall team perfomance.
As for Lyon, there's a reason why every team wanted to avoid them for the Round of 16. Every year, Lyon is always labeled as the competition's dark horse because they come as surprise contenders, but this is due to the fact that they play in the French League and get a lot less publicity. So audiences aren't as familiar with Lyon as other teams and managers are.
First of all, Lyon has the best team play in Europe, hands down. No other team has as good team chemistry, or as smooth interplay and passing. This is due to the fact that the Lyon squad, with a few exceptions, have been together for years. They know each other as most married couples do. They have this amazing juggernaut-like ability to sell off their best players every summer (Edmilson to Barca two years ago, then Essien to Chelsea last year, and most recently Diarra to Real Madrid this past summer), and yet they find talented replacements that fit into the team.
Their midfield is second to none, and it boasts Juninho Pernambucano, the world's best free kick taker and deadball specialist, as well as elegant ex-Chelsea man Tiago, and Jeremy Toulalan, with Kim Kallstrom and Alou Diarra on the bench. Other than Liverpool and Chelsea, no other midfield covers as much grass, but what Lyon has that the other two teams don't are deadly wingers. Florent Malouda and Sidney Govou are speedy and provoke nightmares up and down the flanks. Their attack-minded 4-4-3 can quickly switch to a 4-5-1 when needed. Additionally, their goalkeeper is France's number 1, and their defense is watertight. They conceded the fewest goals in the group stages of the CL. Their bench strength is second to Chelsea's (and just barely - the only difference is instead of stars, Lyon has starlets).
Their weakness: their lack of a first class forward. At Lyon, there seems to be a curse associated with the position of center forward. Fred is very talented but still a little raw, Karim Benzema is also very talented but a teenager, so therefore unreliable, Sylvain Wiltord and John Carew have alternating good and bad days. But Houllier will be adding a striker in January, so this problem may be resolved by February.
Not that it really matters. This past weekend, Lyon's four main strikers were all injured, so their front three men were two midfielders and a right back. Lyon beat their nearest rivals 4-0.
Even more impressive, Lyon has a real hunger for winning. They might compete in a wimpy French league, but they never take their foot off the accelerator. In 26 games, they lost only once, and they've never conceded more than one goal in any one game (other than two in the draw against Real Madrid). And, of the 56 goals they've scored this season, 16 of them have come in the final 5 minutes.
They have been in the quarter-finals of the CL in the past three years (only Milan can boast the same consistancy), and two years ago, they lost to PSV on penalties. Last year, they would have beaten Milan except for a last gasp goal by Pipo Inzaghi.
Lyon is a combination of Barca's flair and Chelsea's never-day-die attitude. I honestly think they'll win this year.
What do you all think?
